How Big Is the AI Accelerator Market? AMD, Broadcom, Nvidia, SK Hynix, TSMC
AMD estimates AI Accelerators will reach US$500bn by 2028 ($45bn in 2023). Accelerators increased by 150% in 2024, reaching US$113bn. Based on TSMC CoWoS, we expect 115% growth over 2025-26, $276bn in 2026.
TSMC makes all the chips. HBM is dominated by Hynix, Micron in 2nd place. Nvidia should remain the dominant vendor for years. AMD and Broadcom should grow faster than NVDA. Outsourcing: Alchip, Marvel, Mediatek.
Semi revenue growth has peaked. Stocks as well.
2/3rd of Semiconductor revenues are slowing down into 2H24 (AI, PC, Server, Smartphone)
The recovering segments (Industrial, Networking, Auto) are too small to change the overall trajectory
The Semi sector is still expensive – valuations charts are borderline scary
NVDA post-market reaction (-7%) highlights the valuation problem. The correction of the tech sector should resume
NVDA 2Q beat consensus, 3Q guidance beat consensus, the stock declined post-market.
Overall, growth in Tech is mediocre (PC, smartphone, enterprise, telcos), with growth concentrated in AI Semis and Hyperscalers
The Tech segment of the NASDAQ 100 is expensive, Non-Tech is not.